A recent Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode survey shows 26% of institutions calling bear market conditions in crypto, up sharply from prior readings. This shift comes amid volatility in early 2026, yet many investors still see Bitcoin as undervalued. The data reveals a fascinating disconnect: bearish labels on the surface, but steadfast holding underneath.
Conducted from December 10, 2025, to January 12, 2026, with 148 respondents split between institutional and non-institutional groups, the findings align with on-chain metrics signaling early bear phases. Despite this, allocations have largely held firm post-October deleveraging. As we unpack this, expect insights into why sentiment isn’t translating to panic selling.
Institutions Calling Bear Market: The Survey Breakdown
The narrative of institutions calling bear market stems directly from this fresh survey data, painting a picture of growing caution without full retreat. Institutional respondents jumped to 26% bearish views from just 2% previously, while non-institutional hit 21% from 7%. This isn’t random noise; it’s backed by indicators like CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Cycle staying negative since October.
Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant emphasized weakening demand as the core driver, with every on-chain and market metric pointing to early bear stages. Yet, this perception clashes with actions on the ground. Investors aren’t dumping; they’re positioning selectively, suggesting the bear market label is more tactical than terminal.
Contextually, this fits broader 2026 trends where ETF outflows and liquidations have pressured prices, as seen in recent Bitcoin slips to $87k levels. The survey captures a moment of recalibration amid macro crosswinds.
Who Responded and Why It Matters
The 148 participants included 75 institutional and 73 non-institutional investors, offering a balanced snapshot of crypto’s diverse player base. This mix ensures the institutions calling bear market aren’t outliers but represent a meaningful cohort. Their views carry weight because institutions drive liquidity and set market tones.
Compared to the last poll, the spike in bearish calls reflects real pain from deleveraging events. But here’s the wit: while labels shift fast, portfolios don’t. This rigidity hints at deeper conviction overriding short-term gloom. For context, check out our analysis on US crypto ETFs inflows, which show resilience despite outflows in spots.
Non-institutional voices, slightly less bearish at 21%, mirror retail hesitation but also accumulation signals. Santiment’s MVRV ratios reinforce this, flagging undervaluation across majors like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
On-Chain Confirmation of Bear Signals
CryptoQuant’s dashboard confirms the bear thesis with metrics underwater since October. Julio Moreno’s podcast take cuts through hype: demand weakness dominates, from exchange flows to holder behavior. No sugarcoating here; it’s early bear, not bull denial.
Bitcoin’s hash rate dips and miner capitulation add layers, as detailed in our Bitcoin hash rate analysis. Yet, negative MVRV on Chainlink, Cardano, and XRP screams opportunity per Santiment. Traders underwater mean lower entry risk.
This setup echoes historical patterns where fear lingers pre-positioning. CyrilXBT notes the Fear & Greed Index at fear, not panic, prime for quiet builds.
Bitcoin Undervalued Despite Bear Calls
Even with 26% of institutions calling bear market, a whopping 70% of them deem Bitcoin undervalued. Non-institutional at 60% agree, highlighting sentiment-action gaps. Post-October, 62% of institutions held or grew allocations; 70% for others. Not exactly bear behavior.
Nearly half say a 10%+ dip won’t budge them; over 30% plan to buy. This HODL mentality persists amid volatility, questioning if bearly accurate labels predict bottoms. Macro signals like steady inflation mix in, but conviction rules.
The undervaluation narrative strengthens as silver hits highs without denting BTC appeal, per linked analyses. It’s a market pausing, not crashing.
Allocation Trends Post-Deleveraging
Since October’s chaos, holdings expanded or stabilized for most. 49% of institutions ignore 10% drops, sticking to plans. 31% eye dips as buys, per survey. This data debunks panic myths; it’s calculated caution.
Link this to Bitcoin whales activity, where big players accumulate quietly. Retail hesitation contrasts whale resolve, per Ethereum trends too.
Implication: dips fuel positioning, not flight. Volatility tests, but long-term bets hold.
Valuation Views Driving Confidence
70% institutional, 60% non: BTC undervalued. Santiment’s negative 30-day MVRV backs it, signaling safe entries. Chainlink, Cardano, Ethereum, XRP deeper in red.
Our Cardano analysis shows similar holder shifts. Negative MVRV means competitors in loss; ideal zero-sum entry.
History favors these zones for reversals, blending bear tags with bull setups.
Q1 2026 Outlook Remains Constructive
Coinbase’s David Duong and Glassnode analysts stay bullish for Q1 despite bear whispers. Clouds from 2025 liquidations linger, but constructive vibes prevail. Factors like inflation at 2.7% ease tariff fears; Atlanta Fed’s 5.3% GDP forecast signals resilience.
Fed cuts of 50bps loom, tailwinds for risk assets. CLARITY Act progress could supercharge. Risks: inflation spikes, energy jumps, geopolitics. Balanced, not blind optimism.
Ties to US CPI report impacts, where data sways crypto fates.
Macro Tailwinds Supporting Crypto
Inflation steady, GDP robust, rate cuts priced in. These prop risk plays, crypto included. December CPI at 2.7% calms nerves.
Compare to crypto market uptrends tied to similar data. Policy tailwinds could amplify if CLARITY passes.
Atlanta Fed’s model underscores economic steel, buffering crypto storms.
Risks That Could Flip the Script
Upside hinges on no inflation surge, energy stability, geopolitics calm. Flares could sour risk appetite fast.
Recent crypto market down days highlight sensitivity. Report flags these as caution triggers.
Investors weigh these against undervaluation, maintaining poise.
What’s Next for Crypto Investors
The institutions calling bear market doesn’t spell doom; it’s a nuanced phase of caution amid conviction. Sustained holdings, dip-buying intent, and undervaluation consensus point to selective accumulation over exodus. Volatility persists, macro looms large, but data favors patience.
Watch ETF flows, whale moves, and policy like CLARITY. Negative MVRV and fear levels suggest positioning windows. Crypto’s hype-free truth: bears growl, but bulls lurk. Stay analytical, cut through noise.
For altcoin angles, see our altcoins to watch. True conviction shines in disconnects like this.
