An anonymous 4chan trader who nailed Bitcoin prediction for the October 2025 all-time high is back with a bold call: $250,000 by 2026. This isn’t some wild guess; it’s built on a time-based cycle model that projected the peak almost two years ahead, landing spot-on before the crash. As Bitcoin sell-off signals flash red across charts, this forecast cuts through the noise, challenging the bearish chorus with historical symmetry.
The crypto crowd is buzzing again, especially with on-chain data screaming caution. Yet this anon insists the broader structure holds, framing the dip as a mere reset before the next leg up. We’ve seen these patterns before—multi-month pullbacks followed by parabolic runs. Is this Bitcoin prediction genius or just lucky timing? Let’s dissect it without the hype.
Short-term holders are dumping, demand is stalling, and indicators like the Bitcoin Combined Market Index scream late-cycle exhaustion. Still, supply squeezes post-halving and institutional rails keep the bull case alive. Check our take on short-term Bitcoin holders for context on the pressure building below the surface.
A Proven Track Record in Bitcoin Prediction
Back in December 2023, this 4chan poster dropped a model based purely on time, not price targets. It hinged on historical cycles: about 1,064 days from bear lows to highs, then roughly 364 days of decline. That math pinned the next top for October 6, 2025—and Bitcoin obliged, peaking right there before tanking days later. Skeptics can’t ignore the precision; it’s given this new Bitcoin prediction unexpected legs.
What makes it stand out? Most analysts chase price levels or momentum, but this was clockwork symmetry. No fluff about macro events or ETF flows—just raw cycle repetition. As markets grapple with US CPI reports and Fed impacts, such simplicity feels almost rebellious. The latest post doubles down: the structure hasn’t broken, just resetting for 2026’s climax.
This approach echoes past cycles where tops arrived amid euphoria, not fear. Traders watching Bitcoin weekly forecasts might scoff, but history shows time-based models often outlast chart squiggles.
The Cycle Model Breakdown
Digging into the numbers, the model uses fixed durations observed across cycles. From 2022 lows, add 1,064 days: boom, October 2025 top. Then 364 days down, setting up a base for expansion. It’s not predicting exact prices yet—the $250K is an extension, assuming symmetry holds. Critics point to changing market dynamics like ETFs, but the anon argues core mechanics persist.
Compare to 2017 or 2021: similar drawdowns mid-bull, followed by blow-offs. Demand exhaustion hit then too, per CryptoQuant data, yet cycles completed. Today’s Bitcoin prediction leans on that precedent, ignoring short-term noise. For deeper dives, see our Bitcoin in 2026 outlook.
One risk: external shocks, like policy shifts, could warp timelines. Still, post-halving supply dynamics mirror history closely. If accurate, this positions 2026 as the real fireworks, not 2025’s false peak.
Visuals from the original post show annotated charts aligning perfectly—a rarity in anon-land. Weight comes from results, not reputation.
Why Skeptics Are Warming Up
Even bears admit the October call was eerie. Forums are reposting it amid current dips, fueling debate. It’s not blind faith; the model’s survived a test. As Bitcoin decouples from stocks, such independent signals gain traction.
Community polls on X show split opinions—40% buy the thesis, 60% call top already in. But rising search for “4chan Bitcoin prediction” tells its own story. Institutions accumulating quietly bolsters the case, per recent treasury strategies.
Ultimately, it’s a reminder: cycles trump tactics. Track MicroStrategy Bitcoin purchases for real-money conviction.
Bearish Signals Clashing with the Bitcoin Prediction
Zoom out to charts, and it’s grim. The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) rolled over from highs signaling late-cycle tops. Momentum’s fading, price can’t reclaim October levels. Short-term data screams caution, echoing analysts like Julio Moreno on demand exhaustion.
Apparent demand—net new buyers—has cratered from 2025 peaks, mirroring 2021 pre-crash. Traditional TA says brace for pain. Yet the anon flips it: these are standard resets, not breaks. With crypto markets down lately, timing feels prescient.
Broader context? Whale selling eased, but retail panic sells amplify dips. Halving effects lag, setting up potential snaps higher. This tension defines the debate.
On-Chain Metrics Under the Microscope
CryptoQuant’s BCMI hit levels tied to past tops, now declining. Demand growth stalled sharply—buyers vanished post-ATH. Historical parallels: 2017 and 2021 saw identical slowdowns before multi-month corrections. Julio Moreno’s tweet nails it: bear market amid exhaustion.
Short-term holders, heavy in recent gains, are capitulating. See our Bitcoin 94K spike analysis for the buildup. Long-term holders accumulate, compressing supply. Metrics conflict: near-term pain, long-term squeeze.
If the prediction holds, this exhausts weak hands. Data doesn’t lie, but interpretation does.
Netflows to exchanges spiked, fueling sell-off fears. Yet stablecoin inflows hint at dip-buying.
Technical Indicators Weigh In
RSI’s oversold on daily, but weekly momentum diverges bearish. Key supports at $80K tested, holding barely. Psychological $100K barrier looms unbreached post-peak. Bears dominate short-term frames.
Compare to Bitcoin Bart Simpson patterns—familiar consolidation before breakouts. Fibonacci retracements align with cycle lows projected by the model. Not conviction-building, but intriguing.
Volume profiles show absorption at lows, hinting reversal potential. Still, no green shoots yet.
Bull Case Tailwinds Supporting the Bitcoin Prediction
Bull markets love skepticism. Past cycles featured deep corrections before finals—this fits. Supply growth post-halving shrinks relentlessly, a core driver. Institutional embeds like ETFs persist, even sans hype. The $250K Bitcoin prediction frames as mechanical extension.
Short-term bears miss the forest: history favors patience. Demand resets precede explosions. As Santa rally hopes fade, contrarian setups sharpen.
Macro tailwinds? Fed cuts loom, decoupling advances. Cycles end in mania, not methodically.
Historical Cycle Parallels
2013, 2017, 2021: all had mid-bull crashes of 30-50%, then new highs. Demand troughs matched today’s. Symmetry suggests 2026 peak after reset. Anon’s time math overlays cleanly.
Post-halving years always expand. Check Bitcoin treasury strategies for long-horizon bets aligning here. Whales aren’t panicking.
Parabolic phases follow doubt—we’re there. $250K implies 3x from here, feasible in cycle finale.
One caveat: scale changes. Adoption tempers volatility, but upside asymmetry remains.
Institutional and Supply Dynamics
ETFs hold billions, net positive despite outflows. Payment rails mature quietly. Supply illiquid—HODLers at all-time highs. Halving math enforces scarcity.
Firms like MicroStrategy stack sats relentlessly. Global liquidity cycles favor risk assets in 2026. Prediction leverages these unchanging forces.
What’s Next
Bitcoin sits in limbo, charts bearish but cycles unfinished. The 4chan Bitcoin prediction dares us to zoom out, betting on reset over rupture. $250K feels audacious amid $90K wobbles, but proven calls demand respect. Watch demand revival and key supports—breakouts or breakdowns decide near-term.
Risks abound: macro meltdowns or prolonged stagnation. Yet tailwinds stack up. For now, it’s wait-and-see, with history as guide. Track our Bitcoin 2026 forecasts as patterns unfold. Crypto rewards the patient—or punishes the hasty.
