XRP has been treading water for the last day, down 16.8% over the past month, with charts screaming bearish. But as we hit this 2025 Christmas season, an XRP Christmas bounce might be brewing, courtesy of three subtle tailwinds shifting the momentum. It’s not a full-throated rally cry yet—more like the market testing if Santa’s sleigh can lift off amid the gloom.
Traders know crypto winters can flip fast, especially around holidays when sentiment spikes. These signals—divergences in momentum, cautious whale moves, and key price levels—aren’t guarantees, but they’re humming a tune that could drown out the bears if buyers show up. We’ve seen XRP ETFs drawing massive inflows lately, adding fuel to the fire. Let’s unpack if this XRP Christmas bounce has legs or if it’s just festive wishful thinking.
While the broader market wrestles with crypto market downs, XRP’s setup stands out for its quiet resilience. Dip-buyers and big holders aren’t bailing, hinting at rotation back in.
Momentum Signals Whispering a Holiday Reversal
XRP’s price has carved lower lows from November 4 to December 24, a classic bearish print that’s kept most traders sidelined. Yet beneath the surface, momentum indicators are flashing early warnings for sellers. This isn’t hype—it’s technicals hinting at exhaustion, the kind that precedes bounces in choppy markets. As we eye a potential XRP Christmas bounce, these divergences deserve scrutiny before jumping in.
The relative strength index (RSI) tells a divergent story: while price dipped, RSI etched higher lows over the same stretch. This bullish divergence often flags reversals, as momentum builds quietly against the downtrend. It’s appeared before major XRP swings, but confirmation needs price action to back it up. Meanwhile, the broader Ethereum price analysis shows similar tensions, suggesting altcoin rotation potential.
Money flow adds weight, with the money flow index (MFI) climbing even as price hesitated from November 21 to December 18. This points to accumulating dip-buying pressure, rotating capital back despite hesitation. Post-December 18, XRP rebounded slightly, and MFI’s exit from oversold territory reinforces the narrative near reversal zones.
RSI Divergence: The Quiet Bull Signal
Bullish RSI divergence on XRP isn’t new, but its timing amid holiday thin liquidity amplifies the setup. From November’s peak, price fell to test supports, yet RSI refused to follow, bottoming higher each time. This decoupling signals fading seller conviction—momentum leads price in crypto, often by days or weeks. Historical charts show similar patterns preceding 20-30% bounces, like mid-2024’s surge.
Critically, RSI now hovers neutral, not overbought, leaving room for upside without immediate pullback risk. Paired with volume upticks, this could propel an XRP Christmas bounce if it clears recent highs. But watch for false signals—divergences fail in strong trends, and XRP’s macro bear channel looms large. Compare to Solana price trajectory pieces, where similar reads panned out.
Traders should layer this with multi-timeframe views: daily divergence aligns with 4-hour oversold bounces, strengthening the case. If RSI pushes above 60 with volume, it’s a green light for longs targeting resistance.
MFI and Volume: Dip-Buyers Returning
The MFI divergence is even more telling, blending price, volume, and inflows. Between late November and mid-December, price slid, but MFI trended higher, screaming accumulation. This dip-buying footprint hints at smart money positioning below retail panic levels. By December 18, XRP bottomed and ticked up, with MFI sustaining higher lows versus early November.
Exiting deep oversold, MFI now eyes 50-60 territory, a resumption zone for inflows. This isn’t explosive—it’s methodical, like institutions nibbling amid volatility. Recent dips haven’t erased the structure, bolstering XRP Christmas bounce odds. Echoes Notcoin price surges driven by similar flows.
Volume confirmation lags slightly, but spot CVD (cumulative volume delta) turns positive, aligning with MFI. If exchanges see net buying, expect acceleration; otherwise, it’s range-bound theater.
Whale Activity: Cautious Reindeer Testing the Snow
Big players dictate XRP’s fate more than retail noise, and recent wallet data shows whales dipping toes back in. Not the aggressive stacks of mid-December, but steady adds from key cohorts since December 22. This cautious accumulation provides backbone to momentum shifts, countering sell-off fears. In a market full of Bitcoin sell-offs, XRP whales holding firm is notable.
Two groups lead: the 100M-1B XRP holders grew from 8.11B to 8.23B tokens (~$150M at spot), starting December 22. The 10M-100M cohort followed suit December 23, up to 10.9B (~$50M). Slow and deliberate, this avoids tipping hands in thin holiday trading. It underscores confidence at current levels, especially versus token declines elsewhere.
Whale moves aren’t blind—they coincide with technical floors, suggesting coordinated positioning for a potential XRP Christmas bounce. But scale matters; these are probes, not all-ins.
Large Cohort Adds: 100M-1B Wallets
The second-biggest whale tier bumped holdings incrementally, a $150M commitment at ~$1.85 average. This group often anchors bottoms, distributing to weaker hands before rallies. Santiment data flags no corresponding dumps, with net positive flows. Timing post-December lows implies bargain hunting, aligning with MFI upticks for confluence.
Historically, such adds precede 15-25% moves in XRP, as seen pre-ETF hype. Current stack equals ~4% supply, influential in low-float scenarios. Risks include macro dumps, but resilience amid Yen carry unwind effects bolsters bulls.
Mid-Tier Whales: 10M-100M Catching Up
Slightly delayed, this cohort added ~$50M December 23, mirroring the larger group’s caution. These “smart money” addresses rotate fast, often signaling retail entry points. Total whale uptick ~$200M counters recent retail outflows, stabilizing price above $1.77.
Net position growth despite volatility hints at HODL conviction. Paired with on-chain stability, it sets up for breakout if resistance cracks. Watch for exchange outflows to confirm.
Key Price Levels: Lighting the Christmas Tree or Bust
Technicals set the stage, but price must perform—XRP needs to navigate hurdles to validate the XRP Christmas bounce. Upside caps at $1.98 since mid-December, a stubborn lid on rallies. Clearing it opens $2.12, then $2.23 for conviction. Downside, $1.77 support dates to October; breach kills the narrative.
Current hold above $1.77 with improving internals buys time, but volume must swell for escape. This mirrors HBAR price breakdowns, where levels decided fates. Holiday thinness amplifies moves, for better or worse.
Structure remains bearish macro, but micro setups scream opportunity if catalysts hit.
Resistance Roadmap: $1.98 and Beyond
$1.98 has repelled every push since December 15, loaded with sell stops and prior highs. Break requires conviction volume, targeting $2.12 fair value gap next. $2.23 fair value aligns with 50% Fib retrace, where profit-taking lurks. Success here echoes Bitcoin spikes, but XRP needs ETF flows to ignite.
Daily closes matter—weak breaks invite traps. RSI/MFI confluence boosts odds, but macro like US CPI impacts could derail.
Support Test: Guarding $1.77
$1.77 structural low since October demands defense; daily close below flips bearish, targeting $1.60. Whales accumulating here suggest floor, but volume dryness risks slips. Multi-week hold implies institutional bids, key for bounce sustenance.
Failure invites market-wide pain; hold enables grind higher.
What’s Next
These three clues—momentum divergences, whale nibbles, price pivots—sketch a credible XRP Christmas bounce setup, but execution is everything. No single signal flips trends; confluence does, and here it’s building without euphoria. Broader context like Santa rally hopes could amplify if Bitcoin stabilizes.
Watch $1.98 break with volume—that’s the spark. Below $1.77, it’s back to hibernation. XRP’s resilience amid alts’ struggles positions it well, but crypto’s whimsy means nothing’s locked. Trade smart, stack evidence, and let price confirm the carols.
