Bitcoin has been hovering around $92,000 after a recent rebound, but a significant number of on-chain indicators indicate that the market may have already slipped into a Bitcoin bear market. This insight starkly contrasts predictions from prominent voices in the crypto community, such as Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, who maintain a bullish outlook for Bitcoin as the year winds down.
In a market where opinions can sway with the tide, this divergence in prediction raises questions. As we explore the latest on-chain data and market indicators, it becomes clear that the current cycle has some features resembling the bearish phases we’ve seen before rather than an impending rally.
Bullish Predictions Clash With Data
Tom Lee, known for his optimistic forecasts, recently adjusted his stance from a lofty $250,000 target for Bitcoin to a more cautious prediction, suggesting that Bitcoin might remain above $100,000 through year-end. On the other hand, Arthur Hayes is sticking to his guns and suggests that the recent dip, which saw Bitcoin in the low $80,000s, could mark a cycle bottom, with potential upside targets around $200,000 to $250,000.
However, this optimistic narrative doesn’t align neatly with the current market structure. Recent findings from CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Signals composite indicate a worrying trend. Historically, in successful bull runs—like late 2023 and early 2025—the model reflected broad green conditions related to valuation, demand growth, and stablecoin liquidity. Yet, since mid-2025, these parameters have predominantly shown red, highlighting a decline in network activity and a drop in stablecoin purchasing power.
Understanding Current Market Signals
The Bull Score Index further illustrates this bearish sentiment. Early 2025 saw Bitcoin maintaining bullish scores above 60, yet by late August of the same year, that score began a troubling descent, falling below 40 by October. As of now, we find ourselves languishing in the 20-30 range, placing us deeply within a bearish context. Despite a recent bounce back from last week’s lows, this is unlikely to signal the start of a new bullish phase.
The shift from green to red signals, indicated by the Bull Score mapped to price, is alarming. Previously, the index offered “extra bullish” signals at the beginning of 2025; however, by September, October, and November, it settled into sustained “bearish” readings. Even the recent uptick toward $92,000 is categorized as merely a bearish rally reminiscent of previous distribution phases at market tops.
Indicators That Demand Caution
The current landscape of market momentum indicators aligns uncomfortably with this bearish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has maintained a neutral stance around 50, signaling weakness behind any advances. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has been predominantly negative this month, indicating ongoing capital outflows even amidst price recoveries.
While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recently flipped positive, the accompanying histogram shows waning amplitude, suggesting any gains are not accompanied by strong momentum. Additionally, short-term RSI spikes above 70 have failed to endure, indicating that sellers remain active, countering every rally attempt and reflecting a market environment of distribution rather than accumulation.
Momentum Metrics Strengthen the Bearish Case
These market dynamics highlight the potential risks associated with a reversal to bullish conditions. While some may stand firm in their optimistic beliefs regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory, the data suggests a reluctance to embrace bullish sentiment in the face of deteriorating liquidity and demand indicators.
Recent price behaviors exemplify this conflicting reality. The MACD’s recent positive crossover mirrors patterns seen during preceding bear market rallies, where there are fleeting moments of improved momentum before another downturn ensues. In this context, the data becomes a crucial decision-making tool for any trader considering their next moves.
A Cautious Eye on Future Trends
So, what can we glean from all of this? The consensus is that while speculators like Lee and Hayes may envision a comeback for Bitcoin, the metrics caution otherwise. Unless we witness a significant rebound in stablecoin liquidity, network activity, and demand growth, the recent recovery may just be a temporary bounce rather than the start of an upward trend.
Thus, for traders and investors looking to navigate these turbulent waters, a deep understanding of market data becomes essential. Familiarity with how to research crypto projects can make all the difference, particularly as we look ahead to 2026 and consider significant Web3 trends that could shape the industry.
Conclusion: What’s Next?
In conclusion, the contradiction between bullish predictions and our current on-chain indicators may add complexity to Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. With numerous metrics signaling a shift into a bearish cycle, vigilance in trading strategies and decision-making becomes vital. When navigating the crypto landscape, whether it’s delving into the world of tokenomics or evaluating Web3 red flags, the importance of informed decision-making has never been higher.
As we move toward the future, the question remains—will Bitcoin find its footing, or are we witnessing the early signs of a prolonged bearish period? With substantial data suggesting the latter, maintaining a cautious stance seems prudent.
