NVIDIA just posted a blockbuster Q4 with $68.1 billion in revenue, up 73% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.62 smashing estimates. JPMorgan quickly bumped their Nvidia stock price target from $250 to $265, joining the chorus of optimists. But the market shrugged, with shares dropping nearly 7% from a $197 high to under $185 on February 26. This disconnect between stellar numbers and price action screams caution in a world obsessed with AI hype.
While headlines celebrate the beat, dig deeper and the growth momentum is slowing quarter-over-quarter. Data center revenue dominates at 91%, but reliance on a handful of hyperscalers raises red flags. Institutions poured in billions yet the stock traded flat—suggesting smart money is positioning carefully amid hidden risks. In crypto terms, it’s like watching Ethereum bull trap signals before a pullback.
We’ll break down the earnings facade, institutional moves, technical cracks, and key levels that could dictate the next move for this Nvidia stock price target saga.
The Earnings Look Impressive, But Cracks Are Showing
NVIDIA’s Q4 figures are the kind that should send shares soaring: $68.1 billion revenue, data center at $62.3 billion, and Q1 guidance of $78 billion topping estimates. JPMorgan’s Harlan Sur didn’t hesitate, lifting the Nvidia stock price target to $265. Yet the stock’s sharp reversal hints at deeper issues investors are sniffing out.
Sequential growth is decelerating—Q3 up 22% over Q2, Q4 at 19.5%, Q1 guidance implying 14.5%. Records keep falling, but the acceleration pace matters for a momentum stock like NVDA. Add customer concentration, with top hyperscalers driving over 50% of data center revenue, and vulnerability looms if AI spending cools.
This setup echoes crypto cycles where blowout quarters mask fading velocity, much like recent Ethereum ETF inflows failing to ignite price.
Revenue Breakdown and Growth Slowdown
The numbers dazzle on surface: 73% YoY growth, EPS beat by 6%. But quarter-over-quarter tells a sobering tale. Deepwater’s Gene Munster pegs 70% of revenue from just eight clients, amplifying risks if any pull back on AI capex. CFO Colette Kress confirmed top five hyperscalers at over 50% of data center sales.
JPMorgan holds a big NVDA stake themselves, a reminder that Wall Street calls often align with their books. Retail might chase headlines, but pros watch these concentrations. A 10-15% capex trim from majors could erase billions in revenue, flipping the narrative fast.
In crypto parallels, think institutions calling bear market despite inflows—hype meets reality.
Guidance Excludes China, But Risks Linger
Q1’s $78 billion guidance excludes China revenue, yet still crushes $72.8 billion consensus. Impressive, but it underscores geographic and client risks. Supply commitments are ballooning, per Michael Burry’s note likening it to pre-dot-com Cisco bust.
CFO Kress admitted locking inventory further out than usual. Bulls see dominance secured; skeptics see overcommitment. Market’s reaction—a failed breakout—suggests doubt on sustainability.
Institutional Flows vs Retail Enthusiasm
Surface metrics like OBV show positive retail pressure with higher highs in consolidation. But 13F filings reveal Q4 net inflows of $113 billion—buying $149B, selling $36B—versus Q3’s measly $4B net. Stock went nowhere, implying absorption by insiders and early holders.
Director Mark Stevens dumped $40M in December; Bank of America closed options positions. Institutions are in, but hedging suggests bracing for volatility. This mirrors crypto whales accumulating while retail hesitates.
The gap between retail optics and big money reality is widening, testing true conviction.
OBV and Volume Pressure
OBV tracks cumulative volume, staying bullish through NVDA’s three-month range. It needs to breach trendline resistance for broad strength confirmation. Retail buying persists, but lacks institutional follow-through.
Despite inflows, sideways action points to supply overhang. Crypto traders know this as accumulation before distribution.
13F Shifts and Insider Sales
Q4 flows were massive, improving sharply from Q3. Yet price stagnation screams caution. BofA neutralized bets; insiders sold. Positions built, but not without hedges—pros preparing for turbulence.
Technical Signals Screaming Caution
CMF rose with the inverse head-and-shoulders right shoulder, peaking at earnings breakout to $197. Then plunged as shares hit $185, exposing speculative flows evaporating. Monthly VWAP break below echoes January’s 8.5% correction trigger.
Institutions now underwater on recent buys, likely sparking stop-loss unwinds. Bearish RSI divergence since November—price lower high, RSI higher high—signals fading momentum in the $169-$199 range.
Failed breakouts abound, much like XRP price breakout teases.
CMF Collapse and VWAP Breach
CMF’s dive post-breakout reveals weak hands fleeing. VWAP drop below since Feb 17 breakout mirrors prior correction. Historical precedent: further downside likely.
Michael Burry’s supply warning adds fuel—Cisco parallels unsettle.
Bearish Divergence in Consolidation
November-to-Feb divergence hides in plain sight. Multiple breakout fails, including H&S. Momentum wanes despite range hold.
Key Price Levels for Nvidia Stock Price Target
Fib extensions frame the battle: downside $183 (0.5), $180 (0.382) guarding $170-$169 lows invalidating pattern. Upside needs $195 neckline close to target $226, then $235 toward JPMorgan’s call.
Hidden divergence and rejection confirm skepticism. Path to $265 exists, but money flow says not yet.
Downside Risks and Supports
$183 immediate, break opens $180 then range lows. Pattern invalidation spells trouble for bulls.
Upside Targets and Resistance
$195 conviction test; clear above eyes $226 projection, $235 extension. JPMorgan’s $265 distant without momentum shift.
What’s Next
$195 decides: hold for bulls, break for bears toward $170s. Watch hyperscaler capex, supply digestion amid decelerating growth. JPMorgan’s Nvidia stock price target is bold, but market demands proof—echoing crypto where Bitcoin price targets meet reality. Institutions positioned, retail chases; conviction tested soon. Track flows and levels closely, as AI hype collides with numbers. Deeper analysis like quantum risks in tech underscores broader vigilance.
