Hedera (HBAR) traders are sitting on a powder keg of leverage, and the fuse is getting shorter. With $4.9 million in short liquidations lurking just above current price levels, the stage is set for a potential squeeze that could catch bearish positions off guard. The cryptocurrency market’s broader uncertainty has kept HBAR pinned down, but technical indicators and derivatives data suggest a shift may be brewing beneath the surface—one that could either spark a recovery or accelerate losses depending on which way the price breaks.
Understanding HBAR liquidation risk requires looking beyond the headline number. It’s not just about the dollar amount sitting at risk; it’s about what happens when those positions unwind. Liquidations create cascading effects that feed into price momentum, turning technical levels into flashpoints where sentiment can flip rapidly. For traders holding HBAR, knowing where these danger zones sit is the difference between recognizing opportunity and getting caught in forced selling.
The Liquidation Landscape: What $4.9 Million Really Means
The derivatives market has become increasingly aggressive with HBAR positioning, and the current configuration reveals a market heavily skewed toward bears. Short sellers have built up substantial positions betting on continued weakness, but those bets come with mathematical consequences. When liquidation levels are breached, algorithmic liquidations trigger immediately, forcing shorts to close positions whether they want to or not. This isn’t theoretical—it’s a mechanical process that executes at specific price points with mathematical precision.
The $4.9 million liquidation threshold at $0.1143 represents a concentration point where the market’s leverage reaches critical mass. Think of it as a pressure valve: hit that price, and the mechanical system forces a release. For short sellers, this creates a paradox. Their positions are profitable right now, but profitability becomes irrelevant if the price moves decisively upward. The forced unwinding of shorts creates an entirely different dynamic than organic buying pressure, generating sharp, often violent upside moves that can extend well beyond what fundamental factors would suggest.
Derivatives Positioning and Capital Flow Signals
The bearish positioning in HBAR futures markets isn’t surprising given the macro headwinds hitting crypto broadly, but what makes this setup dangerous for shorts is the fragility of the bearish narrative. The broader market uncertainty that initially supported bearish bets has begun showing cracks. Capital flow indicators, particularly the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), are starting to shift in ways that could erode bearish confidence over the coming weeks.
Reading the Money Flow Indicators
The Chaikin Money Flow metric currently sits near the zero line but is trending upward, which is the critical detail most traders overlook. At zero, CMF indicates a perfect balance between inflows and outflows—money coming in matches money flowing out. But the directional movement matters enormously. An upward-sloping CMF at zero suggests that the balance is tilting toward inflows, even if it hasn’t crossed into positive territory yet. This is the early signal that accumulation may be beginning to outweigh distribution.
When CMF finally breaks above zero, it signals that net inflows have exceeded outflows over the measured period. For HBAR, this could be the catalyst that collapses bearish confidence. Traders with short positions typically hold them because they expect prices to fall, but when CMF turns positive and stays there, it sends a direct message that smart money is rotating in. That message can propagate quickly through the derivatives market, triggering stop-losses and margin calls among shorts who suddenly see their thesis unraveling.
Correlation Shifts and Bitcoin Independence
HBAR’s correlation with Bitcoin has dropped significantly to just 0.09, a near-complete dissociation from the crypto market leader. This matters because one of the biggest headwinds for HBAR has been Bitcoin’s own uncertainty. When an altcoin trades in lockstep with Bitcoin—correlation of 0.7 or higher—it inherits all of Bitcoin’s baggage. Negative Bitcoin sentiment crushes altcoins, regardless of their individual fundamentals. Lower correlation offers liberation from that constraint.
With correlation near zero, HBAR can now move based on its own investor-specific demand rather than being dragged down by Bitcoin’s macro concerns. This is actually bullish positioning because it removes one of the primary reasons for HBAR’s recent weakness. If Bitcoin faces continued uncertainty—whether from geopolitical factors, macro data, or regulatory developments—HBAR no longer has to follow that descent. The technical setup becomes purely about HBAR’s own support and resistance levels, which are significantly more favorable than Bitcoin’s.
The Resistance Levels That Matter
HBAR currently trades around $0.1019, but that price is deceptive in terms of what it actually reveals about the setup. The real story isn’t where HBAR sits today; it’s where it needs to go to unlock meaningful momentum. Fibonacci levels and technical barriers create a series of checkpoints that will determine whether a rally can sustain itself or whether it will peter out before the critical $0.1143 liquidation trigger.
The 50% Fibonacci Barrier at $0.1035
The immediate overhead resistance sits at $0.1035, aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This is more than just a technical level—it’s a psychological barrier where traders have historically taken profits and bears have defended selling pressure. Breaking and holding above this level is crucial because it signals that bulls have enough conviction to push through established resistance. Many traders place short-term stop losses just above $0.1035, meaning a convincing break could trigger additional forced buying.
Flipping $0.1035 into support would represent a genuine shift in control. Support levels are prices where buyers consistently step in; once a resistance level becomes support, it suggests that the market narrative has changed. Traders who were distributing at $0.1035 are no longer fighting, and buyers are willing to hold positions at that level. That psychological shift is just as important as the price itself.
The Critical $0.1109-$0.1143 Zone
Above $0.1035 sits the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.1109, often considered the most important Fibonacci retracement level by technical traders. Breaking through $0.1109 would put HBAR on a direct path toward the $0.1143 liquidation trigger. This is where the dynamics shift dramatically. The moment HBAR crosses $0.1143, the $4.9 million in short liquidations begins executing, creating a self-reinforcing upside spiral.
The psychology here is critical: traders sitting in short positions above $0.1143 will have their positions liquidated by their brokers. They don’t have a choice. This creates a wall of forced buying pressure that feeds on itself. As shorts get liquidated and forced to buy back their positions to cover, they’re simultaneously creating upside momentum that pushes prices even higher. This is the squeeze dynamic—and it’s why liquidation levels matter far more than conventional support and resistance.
Downside Scenarios and the $0.0961 Floor
If bullish signals fail to materialize, HBAR has significant support at $0.0961, the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This level has held during recent selloffs, suggesting genuine buyer interest. However, a breakdown below $0.0961 would be concerning and could expose HBAR to $0.0870 and deeper losses. The critical point is that HBAR traders must watch this level closely because a break below it would invalidate the near-term bullish setup and reinforce bearish control.
The distinction between the bullish and bearish scenarios hinges on whether capital inflows accelerate or stall. Persistent outflows would limit breakout attempts and keep HBAR ranging between $0.0961 and $0.1035. But if the CMF continues climbing and crosses into positive territory, that consolidation breaks, and HBAR runs toward the liquidation zone. For traders, the question isn’t really about whether HBAR can reach $0.1143—the question is whether the supply of shorts willing to hold all the way there exists or whether capitulation will occur faster than expected.
Macro Uncertainty and Broader Market Context
HBAR’s current price action can’t be divorced from the broader macro environment that has kept crypto markets on edge. Bitcoin’s own uncertainty, Federal Reserve policy signals, and geopolitical developments all contribute to the cautious sentiment preventing a stronger recovery in altcoins. But this macro headwind, while real, is also time-limited. Markets don’t remain uncertain indefinitely; they eventually resolve, and when they do, the direction is often sharp.
Bitcoin’s Role and the Decoupling Opportunity
For most of 2025 and early 2026, Bitcoin has been the gravitational center of crypto markets. When Bitcoin rallies, altcoins follow. When Bitcoin sells off, altcoins get hit harder. This relationship has made it nearly impossible for altcoins like HBAR to establish independent strength. The 0.09 correlation coefficient suggests that dynamic is finally breaking, but only if other factors align. If positive macro signals emerge for crypto broadly, HBAR could decouple upward while Bitcoin stabilizes sideways, creating genuine independent upside.
The risk is that if Bitcoin sells off sharply, even weak correlation might not protect HBAR. True decoupling tends to occur in bull markets or periods of general altcoin strength, not when macro uncertainty remains elevated. Traders should view the low correlation as a potential advantage to exploit if sentiment shifts, but not as a guaranteed hedge against broader crypto weakness.
Sentiment Cycles and Mean Reversion
Extreme bearish sentiment in derivatives markets—like the current short positioning in HBAR—often sets up mean reversion setups. When one-sided positioning becomes too extreme, the market structure itself becomes fragile. A single piece of bullish news or positive macro development can flip sentiment rapidly because shorts are already primed to panic. The psychology of being wrong on a position you’ve leveraged creates enormous pressure to close quickly once doubt creeps in.
This doesn’t guarantee a rally is imminent, but it does suggest that when a reversal comes, it could be sharp and violent. The technical setup—low correlation, rising capital inflows, substantial leverage on the short side—is almost tailor-made for a squeeze. Traders watching HBAR should recognize that the risk/reward for a near-term bounce is increasingly favorable, even if the macro environment remains uncertain.
What’s Next
The immediate catalyst for HBAR is straightforward: break and hold above $0.1035. That single action would signal genuine bullish commitment and put the $0.1143 liquidation zone in realistic reach. If the market provides even modest positive catalyst—whether macro-related or HBAR-specific—the combination of rising CMF, low Bitcoin correlation, and substantial short leverage could create the perfect storm for a liquidation-driven rally.
However, traders must remain realistic about tail risks. If capital inflows stall and outflows resume, HBAR could consolidate between $0.0961 and $0.1035 indefinitely. The macro environment remains uncertain, and Bitcoin’s next move is unknown. But for those positioned to trade the liquidation bounce, the risk/reward has shifted in favor of patience and positioning for the upside. The $4.9 million in HBAR liquidations isn’t just a number to monitor—it’s a market structure signal that something is about to give, and likely soon.
