Bitcoin’s short-term rally keeps fizzling because of what traders now call the “unlucky 13” — a cluster of on-chain resistance about 13% above today’s price that short-term buyers are sitting on and ready to sell into, capping every bounce early. Read more on Bitcoin outlook.
The term isn’t mystical jargon; it’s a simple, evidence-backed description of where the recent cohort of buyers has an average cost basis and why their losses matter to price action. This article walks through the on-chain model, the technical structure, and the practical levels traders should watch — with honest analysis and no hype.
Short-term holders set the ceiling: what the cost-basis tells us
Short-term holders often dictate short-term ceilings because they react fastest to losing positions. When the average entry price for recent buyers is meaningfully above spot, they become natural sellers on rallies to avoid deeper losses — which creates persistent resistance until that cost-basis is reclaimed. That dynamic is the core of the “unlucky 13”: the short-term holder cost basis sits roughly 13% above current prices and acts as a recurring supply wall.
To understand why this matters, you need both the on-chain view and the behavioral reality: on-chain models quantify where coins last moved, while human traders decide whether to hold or sell when underwater. The combination explains why multiple bounces have stalled in the same narrow range.
How Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder model defines the ceiling
Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder (STH) cost-basis model calculates the average price at which recent buyers acquired BTC; when spot is below that average, many STHs are underwater and prone to selling. This is a mechanical form of resistance because those sellers often place limit sells or panic-sell into relief rallies, thinning the bid before momentum can build.
Right now that STH cost-basis sits near the high-$90k area — about 13% above spot — which explains why rallies fade around the same levels. If price reclaims that zone, those sellers flip into profit and the automatic selling pressure that capped bounces would meaningfully decline.
HODL Waves and supply changes confirm the behavior
HODL Waves segment supply by holding age and show whether new buyers keep their coins or dump them quickly. The 1-day to 1-week cohort has been shrinking, indicating newer buyers are cutting supply rather than holding for a deeper recovery. That behavior reinforces the cost-basis resistance because the cohort most likely to sell is the one closest to that average entry price.
Put another way: if recent buyers are trimming rather than holding, the market never gets the sustained demand needed to push past the STH ceiling. That’s why price action looks like a series of attempts that fail to gather follow-through.
Momentum and structure: buyers are trying, but not enough
Technical structure confirms the psychological story. Bitcoin has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle on the 12-hour chart, a neutral pattern born of lower highs and higher lows. Buyers appear and create higher lows, but the volume and institutional inflows aren’t strong enough to flip control. Momentum indicators show effort without control — buyers are present, but not dominant.
That incomplete participation is why even decent-looking rallies die: they don’t carry the volume or capital rotation required to overwhelm the on-chain supply wall represented by the unlucky 13. The path out of this range requires both a technical breakout and a change in the on-chain profit/loss dynamics.
What the Chaikin Money Flow is telling us
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measures volume-weighted buying and selling pressure. Currently CMF is rising with price — which is encouraging — but it remains below zero, meaning inflows are still weaker than outflows on net. Rising CMF below zero is better than falling CMF, but it’s not confirmation; the indicator needs to close above zero to signal that big-money inflows are supporting the move.
Until CMF clears zero, expect rallies to have short legs. That’s the technical mirror of the STH selling: momentum exists but lacks conviction from larger players who move markets decisively.
Symmetrical triangle: neutral until proven otherwise
The triangle compresses decision-making into a tighter range, increasing the likelihood of a sharp move once a breakout occurs. But neutral patterns are exactly that — neutral — and they feed on indecision. In the present case, the triangle’s upper trendline runs into the unlucky 13 on-chain resistance, meaning a breakout attempt needs both direction (price) and conviction (volume) to stick.
Traders should treat the triangle as a conditional setup: a clean breakout with CMF above zero and a reclaim of the STH cost basis would be bullish; everything else is trial-and-error within the range.
Price levels that matter: the 13% barrier and the roadmap
Price levels encapsulate the theory. Bitcoin has been confined to roughly $84.4k–$90.5k for weeks, and each approach to the upper end has been met by sellers cutting losses. The map forward is straightforward: a move above the mid-$94k area would suggest buyers are making progress, while reclaiming the STH zone near $99.8k would break the unlucky 13 barrier and materially reduce selling pressure.
Conversely, failure to hold the lower band would increase the chance of a deeper range reset. Traders and treasuries alike should watch daily closes rather than intraday blips — that’s where trend conviction actually shows up.
Immediate levels: what to watch this month
First sign of progress is a clean move above ~$94.6k, which would show buyers can push through intraday resistance and sustain higher prices. If that follow-through continues to reclaim ~$99.8k — the short-term holder cost basis — the supply wall that killed prior bounces begins to erode and momentum can accelerate higher.
Fail to hold the range and $84.4k becomes the immediate support to test; a decisive daily close below ~$80.6k would shift the outlook from range-bound to broken and open room for lower levels into January trading. Those are binary-ish rules that help strip emotion from decision-making.
Where bulls aim next after breaking the 13% ceiling
If bulls manage to flip the STH cost-basis into profit, the next magnet is the low-$107k area, a level where historical liquidity and prior sellers cluster. That becomes the logical upside target because once the short-term cohort is no longer forced to sell, larger participants and algorithmic flows can rotate capital toward higher technical targets.
In plain terms: reclaim the 13% and the market structure shifts from defensive to offensive. Until then, expect more range-bound drama and recycled rallies.
Market participants and flow: who’s cutting and who’s buying
Understanding which cohorts are selling and which are accumulating gives better context than blind price-watching. Short-term holders have been trimming, while longer-term cohorts remain mostly patient. Meanwhile, whale behavior and ETF flows — or lack thereof — determine whether the shallow rallies get real backing or remain retail-led blips.
Real-money rotation (institutional ETF flows, miners, treasuries) is what transforms a local top into sustained upside. The absence of consistent big-money inflows helps explain why retail-led bounces repeatedly falter; retail lacks the capacity to absorb the supply that sits at the unlucky 13.
Short-term holders vs long-term holders: supply dynamics
Short-term holders set the immediate resistance by their selling choices; long-term holders buffer price by not selling, which reduces available supply and smooths volatility. The current imbalance — short-term selling, long-term hodling — creates the very characteristic of a stuck market: frequent attempts but no enduring breakout.
That imbalance can flip if either the STH cohort stops selling (because price reclaims their entry) or if long-term holders decide to realize gains — the former is the typical path to constructive trends, the latter usually marks tops and distribution.
Where whales and ETFs fit into the picture
Whale accumulation or ETF rotation can overwhelm retail supply quickly; that’s why markets care about whether capital is moving into BTC at scale. Positive rotation into Bitcoin from large allocators reduces the impact of short-term selling and can force a sustainable breakout, while outflows or dormancy leave rallies brittle.
Links between ETF flows and price behavior have been visible in recent months; to understand rotation and capital allocation context, see our coverage of crypto ETF rotation and how big inflows shift market structure.
What’s Next
The simplest practical takeaway: watch the mid-$94k level for signs of progress and $99.8k as the structural break that dissolves the unlucky 13 resistance. Without those breaks, expect continued range-bound action and recycled rallies that fail to gather momentum.
If you want macro and flow context alongside price levels, consult our pieces on broader drivers such as Bitcoin buying pressure and on-chain accumulation patterns like whale accumulation on Ethereum which often presage larger market rotations. For shorter-term trade ideas related to pattern breakouts and support flips, our technical outlooks such as weekly Bitcoin forecasts are useful reference points.
